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Prediction for CME (2026-01-08T17:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-01-08T17:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43839/-1
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME to the S and SE in SOHO LASCO and GOES CCOR-1 coronagraphs, fully covered by the daily data gap in STEREO A COR2. Its source is a massive, very complex filament eruption S and E of Active Region 14334 (S19E03), potentially involving two erupting filaments (one directly south of this active region and another more to the east. This eruption starts after ~2026-01-08T16Z to the SE of disk center and is associated with the long-duration C5.6 flare in this active region peaking at 2026-01-08T17:30Z. It is seen in SDO AIA 304/193 as bright, extensive post-eruptive arcades, a large-area dimming, faint EUV wave and erupting filaments seen in 304. Arrival at L1 (analyzed in discussion with LASSOS team): Significant shock signature characterized by a sudden jump in B total from 5 to 19nT, with Bz quickly reaching -18nT and then staying negative for four hours. Accompanied by a sharp increase in the solar wind speed from 450 to 620 km/s. There is also a sudden increase in ion density from 5 to 20 p/cc and a simultaneous, more gradual, increase in ion temperature from 35 K to over 500 K. After 2026-01-10T23:30Z the signature changes to what is likely an arrival of the flux rope, with smooth rotation of components and Bz turning northward for over four hours. B total increases from 7 to over 15 nT and density drops. It is possible that the initial shock signature incorporates a glancing blow from another CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-01-10T19:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-11T04:40Z (-6.09h, +4.26h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

*** LASCO ***
Time of Launch: 2026/01/08 16:50Z
Plane of Sky 1: 00:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 02:10Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction
POS Difference: 1:40
POS Midpoint: 01:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:30

Numeric View/Impact Type: +2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.04
Travel Time: ~7.04 * 8:30 = 59:50

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2026-01-11T04:40Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 1/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qk6urcusaj


Forecast Creation Time: 2026/01/09 13:38Z

Lead Time: 26.72 hour(s)
Difference: -9.07 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2026-01-09T16:53Z

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